Implied probability
Decimal odds imply probability as 1 divided by decimal odds. American and fractional odds are converted to decimal odds first.
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Methodology
The MVP uses deterministic betting math. It does not claim to predict results with certainty, and it does not place wagers.
No-vig probability
Sportsbooks include margin. The no-vig calculator normalizes all implied probabilities in a market by their total overround to estimate fair probabilities.
Expected value
Expected value compares estimated probability against payout. Positive EV means the estimate is higher than the break-even probability implied by the odds.
Parlay simulations
Parlay odds multiply leg odds. Hit probability multiplies leg probabilities and assumes independence. This is a simplification and can be wrong when legs are correlated.
Kelly sizing
Kelly estimates an aggressive optimal fraction from odds and probability. The tool also shows half-Kelly because full Kelly can be volatile.
Future odds API
Live odds are intentionally deferred in v1. The backend reserves an OddsProvider interface so The Odds API, SportsDataIO, OpticOdds, or Sportradar can be added later.